Older Blog Posts
- Errata list for Bet Smart: The Kelly System for Gambling and Investing
Jan 9 2009Here is an errata list for our book Bet Smart: The Kelly System for Gambling and Investing.
- Macroeconomic Portfolio Update
Dec 15 2008We have updated our Macroeconomic Portfolio.
- Our New Book is now Available in Several Countries
Dec 12 2008Our new book Bet Smart: The Kelly System for Gambling and Investing is now available in Australia, Canada, Deutschland, Finland, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
- Improved Bond Default Probability Calculator
Nov 27 2008We have improved our bond default probability calculator.
- Web Page for Our New Book
Nov 18 2008Our new book Bet Smart: The Kelly System for Gambling and Investing has a new web page where you'll find the table of contents, the book's preface, and related info.
- New Book Finished
Nov 10 2008If you've wondered why we haven't posted anything here in awhile, it's because we've been working feverishly on our new book, Bet Smart: The Kelly System for Gambling and Investing. We've finally finished it, and it should be available at Amazon by the end of the month.
- The Domestic Money Market
Oct 9 2008Here are some interesting statistics on domestic money market securities. These are debt securities with remaining maturity up to one year.
In March 2008 the dollar amount of outstanding securities by sector were as follows:
Outstanding Money Market Securities, March 2008 Sector US Dollars [billions] % of total Financial 3,676.4 65.5 Government 1,768.9 31.5 Corporate 163.8 3.0 Total 5,609.1 100.0 Source: Bank for International Settlements
Financial institutions are by far the largest issuers of money market securities with 65.5% of the total in March 2008. Corporate paper makes up only 3% of the market. Much of the money represented by the financial paper no doubt went to hedge funds and/or into short term financing of assets that were to be sold. The problem is that highly leveraged hedge funds are now seen as too risky to lend to and markets no longer exist for some assets. With $3.676 trillion of this paper coming due in the next few months there will be problems if the money market remains frozen. I suspect some of the sell off in the stock market is due to hedge funds being forced to sell in order to pay off debt.
- 1 Year Macroeconomic Portfolio
Sept 24 2008How can you take advantage of current macroeconomic trends? Take a look at our 1 year macroeconomic portfolio.
- Events of the Past Week - Consequences
Sept 22 2008The events of the past week have made two things clear (or at least highly probable):
- The US is in for a recession that will be deeper and longer than anyone imagined.
- The dollar will become devalued and its days as the world's reserve currency are probably numbered.
What will the devaluation of the dollar mean to the US?
- Higher interest rates on everything from Treasuries to credit cards.
- Higher commodity prices.
- A decline in corporate profits.
These are just a few of the many potential consequences.
- Aug 18 2008
We have a new calculator for the Kelly fraction for two bets/investments.
- Aug 8 2008
Plotting for our calculators and simulators has been improved.
- July 22 2008
We've put up a calculator for the Kelly fraction of a single bet/investment with a bond.
- July 18 2008
We've added simulation and plotting features to our calculator for the Kelly fraction of a single bet/investment that can have any number of possible returns.
- July 14 2008
We've put up a calculator for the Kelly fraction of a single bet/investment that can have any number of possible returns.
- July 3 2008
We've put up a calculator for playing multiple coin toss bets simultaneously.
- June 27 2008
Our coin toss simulator for fixed fraction betting now plots its results.
- June 16 2008
Here's a list of stocks that have been severely battered over the past year.
- June 10 2008
We've put up a coin toss simulator for fixed fraction betting.
- June 5 2008
Stefan has written An Introduction to Bonds.
- June 4 2008
We've put up a calculator for the yield to maturity of a bond.
- May 29 2008
We've put up calculators for the maximum acceptable default probability for a risky bond, and the required yield on a risky bond given its default probability.
We've also put up a Kelly fraction calculator for stock and bond investment.
- May 20 2008
We've put up a calculator for the Kelly fraction in a general binary bet.
- May 2 2008
As a very unusual application of the Kelly criterion, we have done an analysis of the Powerball lottery.
- Apr 4 2008
A rough draft of a chapter of a book we are writing, Bet Smart: The Kelly System for Gambling and Investing is available.