Older Blog Posts
- Coin Tosser
Dec 29 2011For those occasions when you need to toss a coin, we've added a Coin Tosser.
- Blog Post
Dec 29 2011 - Blog Post
Dec 23 2011 - Binomial Distribution Calculator
Dec 6 2011We've just put up a binomial distribution (coin toss) calculator.
- Bond Default Probability Formulas
Nov 22 2011We've made the formulas from our QuantWolf Guide to Calculating Bond Default Probabilities available for anyone to access. Just go to the page and click on the Table of Contents link or scroll down to the bottom of the page.
- Blog Post
Oct 26 2011Here's an interview we did with Emanuel Derman on his new book just released yesterday.
- Coin Toss Runs Calculator
Oct 25 2011We've just put up a coin toss runs calculator.
- First 4 Chapters of 'Simple Trading Strategies That Work' Now Available for Free
Oct 18 2011The first 4 chapters, as well as the 2 appendices, of our book Simple Trading Strategies That Work are now available for free. Just click on the table of contents of this book's web page.
- Blog Post
Sept 29 2011 - Blog Post
Aug 30 2011Interview with Konrad Hummler, Head of Oldest Swiss Private Bank.
- Blog Post
Aug 18 2011Report Upgrade: The QuantWolf Guide to Calculating Bond Default Probabilities.
- Blog Post
July 7 2011 - New Ebook
June 30 2011We've greatly expanded our report Simple Trading Strategies That Work and made it an ebook.
- Blog Post
June 3 2011 - Blog Post
May 29 2011 - Blog Post
May 18 2011 - Improved ETF Trading System
May 13 2011We've improved our ETF trading system, and changed the list of ETF's that we forecast.
- New Report
May 10 2011We've just finished a report on Simple Trading Strategies That Work.
- Blog Post
May 9 2011 - Blog Post
Mar 28 2011 - New Report
Mar 24 2011We've just finished a report on The Mathematics of Lotteries.
- Blog Post
Feb 21 2011 - Blog Post
Feb 9 2011 - Blog Post
Feb 4 2011 - New Calculator
Feb 3 2011Stock Price Probability Calculator - gives the risk neutral probability that a stock with the specified current price, and volatility, will be within the given price range at the specified date.
- New Calculators
Feb 2 2011Normal Random Variable Probability Calculator
Lognormal Random Variable Probability Calculator - New Page on ETF Correlations
Jan 28 2011We have a new page on ETF correlations.
- Blog Post
Jan 19 2011 - New Calculator
Jan 12 2011Calendar Day Count Calculator - counts the number of calendar days from the start date to the end date.
- New Page on Stock Trading Hours
Jan 6 2011We have a new page on stock trading hours.
- Blog Post
Dec 29 2010 - New Page on Quant Books
Dec 27 2010We have a new page on quant books.
- Blog Post
Dec 17 2010 - Blog Post
Dec 16 2010 - Blog Post
Dec 14 2010 - Blog Post
Dec 13 2010 - New Calculator
Dec 13 2010Implied Volatility Calculator - calculates the implied volatility in an option price using the Black-Scholes model.
- Blog Post
Dec 10 2010 - New Option Price Calculator
Nov 30 2010We have a new option price calculator that will calculate prices for European style call and put options. The greeks are also calculated.
- Blog Post
Nov 11 2010 - Improved ETF forecast, free for now
Nov 6 2010We have improved our daily ETF forecast, and it's free for now.
- New Blog Post
Oct 23 2010 - New Blog
Oct 8 2010Stefan and Richard have a new blog.
- Daily ETF Forecast Newsletter Archive
Feb 16 2010There is now an archive of the forecasts in our Daily ETF Forecast Newsletter. You can look at forecasts posted with a delay of about 1 day. The archive starts on Feb. 4, 2010.
- Daily ETF Forecast Newsletter
Nov 23 2009We are starting a daily ETF forecast newsletter.
- Kelly system spreadsheet
April 9 2009An OpenOffice spreadsheet for doing Kelly fraction calculations and simulations has been posted on our Kelly page.
- New Kelly system home page and introduction
Mar 7 2009We have a new Kelly system home page that has all our Kelly system links, including a new short introduction to the Kelly system for those who are completely unfamiliar with it.
- Software for Bet Smart: The Kelly System for Gambling and Investing
Jan 20 2009Software for our Bet Smart book can now be downloaded from the book's web page.
- Errata list for Bet Smart: The Kelly System for Gambling and Investing
Jan 9 2009Here is an errata list for our book Bet Smart: The Kelly System for Gambling and Investing.
- Macroeconomic Portfolio Update
Dec 15 2008We have updated our Macroeconomic Portfolio.
- Our New Book is now Available in Several Countries
Dec 12 2008Our new book Bet Smart: The Kelly System for Gambling and Investing is now available in Australia, Canada, Deutschland, Finland, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
- Improved Bond Default Probability Calculator
Nov 27 2008We have improved our bond default probability calculator.
- Web Page for Our New Book
Nov 18 2008Our new book Bet Smart: The Kelly System for Gambling and Investing has a new web page where you'll find the table of contents, the book's preface, and related info.
- New Book Finished
Nov 10 2008If you've wondered why we haven't posted anything here in awhile, it's because we've been working feverishly on our new book, Bet Smart: The Kelly System for Gambling and Investing. We've finally finished it, and it should be available at Amazon by the end of the month.
- The Domestic Money Market
Oct 9 2008Here are some interesting statistics on domestic money market securities. These are debt securities with remaining maturity up to one year.
In March 2008 the dollar amount of outstanding securities by sector were as follows:
Outstanding Money Market Securities, March 2008 Sector US Dollars [billions] % of total Financial 3,676.4 65.5 Government 1,768.9 31.5 Corporate 163.8 3.0 Total 5,609.1 100.0 Source: Bank for International Settlements
Financial institutions are by far the largest issuers of money market securities with 65.5% of the total in March 2008. Corporate paper makes up only 3% of the market. Much of the money represented by the financial paper no doubt went to hedge funds and/or into short term financing of assets that were to be sold. The problem is that highly leveraged hedge funds are now seen as too risky to lend to and markets no longer exist for some assets. With $3.676 trillion of this paper coming due in the next few months there will be problems if the money market remains frozen. I suspect some of the sell off in the stock market is due to hedge funds being forced to sell in order to pay off debt.
- 1 Year Macroeconomic Portfolio
Sept 24 2008How can you take advantage of current macroeconomic trends? Take a look at our 1 year macroeconomic portfolio.
- Events of the Past Week - Consequences
Sept 22 2008The events of the past week have made two things clear (or at least highly probable):
- The US is in for a recession that will be deeper and longer than anyone imagined.
- The dollar will become devalued and its days as the world's reserve currency are probably numbered.
What will the devaluation of the dollar mean to the US?
- Higher interest rates on everything from Treasuries to credit cards.
- Higher commodity prices.
- A decline in corporate profits.
These are just a few of the many potential consequences.
- Aug 18 2008
We have a new calculator for the Kelly fraction for two bets/investments.
- Aug 8 2008
Plotting for our calculators and simulators has been improved.
- July 22 2008
We've put up a calculator for the Kelly fraction of a single bet/investment with a bond.
- July 18 2008
We've added simulation and plotting features to our calculator for the Kelly fraction of a single bet/investment that can have any number of possible returns.
- July 14 2008
We've put up a calculator for the Kelly fraction of a single bet/investment that can have any number of possible returns.
- July 3 2008
We've put up a calculator for playing multiple coin toss bets simultaneously.
- June 27 2008
Our coin toss simulator for fixed fraction betting now plots its results.
- June 16 2008
Here's a list of stocks that have been severely battered over the past year.
- June 10 2008
We've put up a coin toss simulator for fixed fraction betting.
- June 5 2008
Stefan has written An Introduction to Bonds.
- June 4 2008
We've put up a calculator for the yield to maturity of a bond.
- May 29 2008
We've put up calculators for the maximum acceptable default probability for a risky bond, and the required yield on a risky bond given its default probability.
We've also put up a Kelly fraction calculator for stock and bond investment.
- May 20 2008
We've put up a calculator for the Kelly fraction in a general binary bet.
- May 2 2008
As a very unusual application of the Kelly criterion, we have done an analysis of the Powerball lottery.
- Apr 4 2008
A rough draft of a chapter of a book we are writing, Bet Smart: The Kelly System for Gambling and Investing is available.