Disclaimer.
This newsletter is intended for very experienced traders only. We are not financial advisers and the information provided in the newsletter should not be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell the mentioned securities or any other securities for that matter. The newsletter is provided for informational purposes only. What you do with the information is solely your responsibility.

This newsletter gives a daily forecast for the price movement of several ETFs.

The current list of ETFs includes:

UUP, VXX, TBT, XLU, SH, EUO, LQD, IWV, DJP, SSG, BND, BSV, SHV, FXC, BIL, BWX, EMB, BIV, LAG, PAGG, DGT.

The list of ETFs that we forecast changes over time, depending on how the ETF statistics change, and how our forecasting system evolves.

There is an archive of forecasts from past newsletters.

Requests for forecasting other ETFs are welcome but the ability to honor the request is not guaranteed. The price movements of some ETF's are more predictable than others. If a minimum level of predictability is not possible then it will not be included.

The forecasts consist of probabilities for prices closing up or down from the open, plus some additional statistics. In particular, the forecast for each ETF will include a minimum of the following:

Some additional statistics that may be included are:

Requests for other statistics will be considered.

To use the information in this newsletter you must be familiar with the basics of probability. You should know that a probability can range in value from 0 to 1. An event with a probability of 1 means it is certain to occur and a probability of 0 means it is certain not to occur. A probability of 0.5 means it will occur roughly half of the time and so on. Since an ETF must either be up or down (flat is counted as down) in price at the end of the day, the up and down probabilities will always sum to one.

If the forecast for an ETF has an up probability of 0.8 and a down probability of 0.2 then there is a good chance that it will end the day up from the open. There is still however a 20% chance that it will go down. This means that if you use these forecasts for investment purposes, then you should have a plan for initiating a position in the ETF and setting stops.

To help with position sizing, each forecast has a Kelly fraction associated with it. The Kelly fraction specifies the fraction of your investment allocation that you should actually use. Its value ranges from -1 to +1 with -1 indicating a 100% short position and +1 a 100% long position. A value of +.9 for example, means 90% of the allocation should be used. Over the long run, using the Kelly fraction helps to minimize potential losses and at the same time maximize potential gains.

How does it work?

The following is a list of some of the data that can go into generating a forecast.

The way in which we generate forecasts is constantly evolving but the fundamental process involves pattern recognition. The premise is that the market's response to a given set of economic conditions in the past is a good indicator of how it will respond when those conditions reappear.

This is of course not always the case. New economic relationships are forming all the time and the influence of economic variables can change. The economy is an evolving system which means that our forecasts have to evolve with it. We feel that we have developed a computational approach to generating forecasts that is flexible enough to quickly adapt to changing conditions.

Market conditions can change abruptly and unexpectedly on a daily basis. This means that there are fundamental limits on how accurate a daily forecasting system can be and any daily forecast is contingent at best. Always keep in mind that unexpected news and economic data can have large effects on markets and can completely invalidate any forecast.

A large gap in the price from close to open may also affect the forecast accuracy. For example if the up probability is large but the ETF already opens up by a significant amount from the previous close then any further upward move may be limited.

How much does it cost and what exactly do you get?

There are two ways you can subscribe.

First time monthly subscribers will also get a free copy of the book Bet Smart: the Kelly system for gambling and investing by Stefan Hollos and Richard Hollos

Each newsletter will consist of the forecasts for at least 10 ETF's as mentioned above. The newsletter will be emailed by 1:00 AM Mountain time (3:00 AM New York, 12:00 AM Los Angeles, 8:00 AM London) on the morning of the forecast.